Tag

Sensible Investing

Comparing your spending with others

By | News & Views | No Comments

Our clients are often interested in how their household spending compares to others.  Do they spend more than their neighbours, about the same, or less?  This financial curiosity has been satisfied with the publication of new official figures reporting on household spending across the UK.

The latest Family Spending Survey from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) offers an insight into the spending habits of UK households, broken down by household characteristics and types of spending.  At a headline level, it shows that average weekly spending is up to £572.60 for the year ending March 2018.  This is the highest level of weekly spending since 2005, when adjusted for inflation.

According to the ONS, this rise in UK household spending is correlated with an improvement in the employment rate, which reached a record high of 75.6% in the first quarter of last year.

The ONS reports that the biggest outlay for households was transport.  The average household is now shelling out £80.80 a week on its transport costs.  A further £76.10 per week was spent on average on housing costs, fuel and power.  This was followed by an average of £74.60 a week on recreation and culture.

In addition to spending habits, the report also looks at how much we are saving.  It found that our savings ratio has fallen to its lowest level since records began, to just 3.9%.  Such a low savings ratio suggests that households are dipping into their savings, and even taking on new debt, in order to spend more and keep up with their lifestyle costs.

Looking at spending habits across different parts of the UK, the ONS report found some interesting differences.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, London households are spending the most each week with an average weekly spend of £658.30 in the City.  Other parts of the country to report above average levels of weekly spending were the South East, South West and East of England.

In contrast, the lowest average spending was reported in the North East of England, where households were spending an average of £457.50 each week.  There was also below average spending in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, at £492.20, £488.50 and £470.40 a week on average respectively.

Another trend identified in the report was less of an outlay on alcoholic drinks.  It’s not the first time the ONS has spotted this downward trend.  Households are now spending an average of just £8 a week on alcohol.  A decade earlier, this figure was £10.90 a week, when adjusted for price inflation. More is being spent on food and non-alcoholic drinks compared to a year earlier; £60.60 a week now compared with £58 a week (inflation adjusted) back in 2008.

Commenting on the figures, Helen Morrissey, pension specialist at Royal London, pointed out they represent a home maintenance time bomb for the over 50s.  She said:

“Today’s figures show that just because people may have paid off their mortgage it doesn’t mean they stop spending on their house and many are facing a home maintenance time bomb.

“The stats show almost a quarter of all housing expenditure in households headed by people aged between 50-74 was on alterations and improvements such as central heating installations and double glazing. This figure is much higher than the average for all households which is more like 14%.

“It demonstrates the importance of having the necessary savings to meet these sizeable and often unexpected expenses for those approaching and in retirement. Being unable to meet these expenses as we get older can lead to people being forced to move from much loved homes because they no longer meet their needs.”

Of course, how you allocate your own household spending each week is likely to vary from these national averages.  What matters is that expenditure is intentional and forms part of your overall financial planning, helping you to achieve and maintain your desired lifestyle.

At Wells Gibson we put your life at the centre of our conversations and design a Wealth Plan which makes it easier for you to visualise and achieve the life you want; answers your big questions and helps you prepare for your life’s transitions; and gives you the greatest chance of a successful investment outcome and fulfilled life from the money you have and will have.

Six warning signs of an investment scam

By | News & Views | No Comments

It can be a dangerous world when it comes to our personal finances.  Sadly, scammers and fraudsters are widespread, always looking for their next unsuspecting victim.

New figures highlighted by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) show nearly £200 million was lost to reported investment scams last year.  The average victim lost £29,000 in 2018, with common scams reported involving investments in shares and bonds, foreign currency exchange trading (forex) and cryptocurrencies.

The data comes from Action Fraud, which revealed more than £197 million of reported investment scam losses last year.  They also pointed out that scammers are resorting to increasingly sophisticated tactics in order to persuade their victims to give up their cash.

According to the FCA and data from their call centre, it’s investments from unregulated firms that are most commonly reported as scams. These include investments in shares and bonds, forex and cryptocurrencies, all from firms that are not FCA authorised.  These investment scams represent 85% of all suspected investment scams reported last year.

With the first quarter of the year considered to be a peak season for investing, with end of the tax year approaching, investors are being warned to be particularly vigilant.  The FCA warned that the profile of investment scams is changing, with more of these taking place online.  It means scammers are increasingly moving away from traditional cold calling on the telephone to find victims, although this approach does continue to exist.

Fraudsters are now contacting people through emails, professional looking websites, and social media channels, including Facebook and Instagram.

Research carried out by the FCA found that, last year, more than half of potential fraud victims did the right thing by checking first with the FCA Warnings List at www.fca.org.uk/scamsmart/warning-list.  This is a tool that helps users to find out more about the risks associated with an investment and search a list of firms the FCA knows are operating without its authorisation.

The FCA is urging investors to consider the following six warning signs when making investment decisions:

  1. Unexpected contact – Traditionally scammers cold-call but contact can also come from online sources e.g. email or social media, post, word of mouth or even in person at a seminar or exhibition.
  2. Time pressure – They might offer you a bonus or discount if you invest before a set date or say the opportunity is only available for a short period.
  3. Social proof – They may share fake reviews and claim other clients have invested or want in on the deal.
  4. Unrealistic returns – Fraudsters often promise tempting returns that sound too good to be true, such as much better interest rates than elsewhere.
  5. False authority – Using convincing literature and websites, claiming to be regulated, speaking with authority on investment products.
  6. Flattery – Building a friendship with you to lull you into a false sense of security.

Mark Steward, Executive Director of Enforcement and Market Oversight, FCA, said:

“Investment scams are becoming more and more sophisticated and fraudsters are using fake credentials to make themselves look legitimate.  The FCA is working harder than ever to help protect the public against this threat.  Last year we published over 360 warnings about potentially fraudulent firms.  And we want to spread the message so we can all better protect ourselves from investment scams.”

Director of Action Fraud, Pauline Smith, said:

“We are working with the FCA to raise awareness of investment fraud and would urge anyone who is considering in investing to check with the FCA before parting with their money.

“If you think you have been a victim of investment fraud, report it to Action Fraud.”

The FCA is advising investors to reduce their chances of falling victim to investment fraud by carrying out three simple steps. You should always reject unsolicited investment offers, whether these are made

online, via social media, or over the telephone. The recent introduction of new legislation makes it illegal for anyone to cold call you about pensions.  This should serve as a strong warning that any investment-related cold calling is likely to be an attempted scam, as legitimate firms do not cold call prospect customers.

Before investing any money, always check the FCA Register to make sure that the individual or firm involved is authorised.  You should also check the FCA Warning List to make sure the firm you are dealing with is not listed there.

And finally, you should seek impartial advice before investing.  There is never any harm in seeking a second opinion before investing your money.

There are more tips at the FCA’s ScamSmart website, which can be found at www.fca.org.uk/scamsmart.

If you’ve lost money in a scam, contact Action Fraud on 0300 123 2040 or visit their website at www.actionfraud.police.uk.

How Much Do I Need to Retire?

By | News & Views | No Comments

As financial questions go, my late father regarded this as a big one we all need to answer:  how much do I need to retire?

There are various rules of thumb you can apply so you can answer this big financial question.  As a rough guide, some financial planners might suggest you need enough in your pension pot to provide the equivalent of two-thirds of your salary from employment.

We used to consider a £1m pension pot as the basis of a financially sound retirement, big enough to generate what is needed in later life.  This £1m pension pot rule of thumb would have typically seen the majority of investors through their later years, assuming they didn’t spend excessively, especially during the early years of retirement.  However, in recent years, a combination of factors has prompted a rethink of how much is typically needed in savings, pensions and investments in order to sustain a required level of retirement income.

A big driver of this need for more is that we are, on average, living much longer.  Sadly, my father died at 60.  Considerable improvements to life expectancy were experienced throughout the 20th century, thanks largely to health improvements for younger people, such as immunisations.  Since the 1950s, it has been health improvements for the older population which has driven life expectancy higher.  Back in 1980, life expectancy at birth was 71 for men and 77 for women.  Fast forward to 2011 (the latest year for available statistics) and those ages have risen to 79 and 82.8 respectively.

Of course, these are just averages.  50% of people will live longer than these average ages. Those who engage in the financial planning process, who tend to be wealthier, typically have a better life expectancy than average.  With longer lives comes a need for larger pension pots.

Another factor driving the need for greater retirement savings is the rising cost of living.  One million pounds isn’t what it used to be!  Price inflation might be relatively low at the moment, but even modest annual price inflation over extended periods of time can dramatically increase the cost of

living.  This cost of living increase has exceeded 70% over the last twenty years, pushing up the amount of pension savings you will need to maintain the same standard of living as previous generations of retirees.

In order to keep pace with the rising cost of living in retirement, you need a bigger pension pot.

One more factor driving the need for a bigger pension pot is a lower return from investments.  In the low interest economic environment which followed the global financial crisis, it takes a bigger pension pot to secure the same level of annual retirement income.  Yields on the benchmark 10-year government bond (Gilt yields), which is a widely used reference point for pension annuities, stand at 1.19% today.  Around twenty years’ ago, the yield was 7.4%.

With lower returns from investments today, a larger pension pot is needed to generate the same level of income in retirement.

Despite a trend towards needing a bigger pension pot to afford retirement today, it’s worth remembering that we are all different and have differing financial needs and goals.  It would be wrong to apply a simple rule of thumb and expect to get an accurate answer to this big financial question.

A pension pot valued at £1m will be sufficient for some. Others will need more and £2m worth of pensions, savings and investments will be closer to the target.

The amount you need to save to retire comfortably is going to depend on a range of factors; when you plan to retire, how much income you need, the amount of investment risk you are willing to take, whether you face any health challenges, and much more.

With the help of Wells Gibson, it is possible to quantify precisely how much you need in order to achieve and maintain the life that’s important to you without the fear of running out of money.

My father ran out of life, just make sure you don’t run out of money!

How to keep your investment head during Brexit

By | News & Views | No Comments

As the old Chinese curse has it, “May you live in interesting times”.  With Brexit negotiations ongoing, it’s certainly interesting times in British politics, with likely consequences for investment markets.

There’s still a great deal of uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit. The anticipated ‘decisive vote’ has been postponed, for now, so Theresa May can seek more reassurances around the Irish border backstop.  We’ve also had confirmation from the European Court of Justice that the UK can unilaterally withdraw its Article 50 notice and effectively cancel Brexit, without seeking approval from other EU countries.

We can’t know for sure what is going to happen next.

One possible scenario is a lost vote in the House of Commons followed by the resignation of Theresa May, and then a new leadership election within the Conservative Party; possibly even a General Election in the New Year.

We do know that investment markets dislike uncertainty.  As we move ever closer to the 29th March departure date, that uncertainty only grows.  With global markets already displaying some volatility in recent months, that growing uncertainty could result in greater volatility, market corrections and (understandably) nervous investors.

Despite this uncertainty and its potential impact on investment portfolios, at Wells Gibson, we are clear about how we will navigate any choppy investment market conditions ahead.  In simple terms, our approach towards investment planning and management remains unchanged.  Here’s why.

The portfolios we recommend for clients are globally diversified. This means that we don’t recommend putting all of your eggs in one basket, instead spreading portfolios across several investment asset classes, sectors and themes.  This diversification is a really important aspect of risk management when investing money.  Furthermore, it’s probably the only free lunch available when investing.

From the perspective of any Brexit induced volatility, diversification means our clients are not overly exposed to investment assets which are most likely to respond to domestic turmoil.  It means that, when the newspapers and newsreaders are being sensationalist and screaming about billions of pounds being wiped off the value of the FTSE 100, this is only one part of your investment portfolio.

In recent years, this diversification within the portfolios we recommend and manage has moved further from the UK to include a higher proportion of global assets.  Thinking about the UK equity holdings within client portfolios, there’s an interesting consequence of the high proportion of overseas earnings from FTSE 100 companies, for example.  In the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, many investors were surprised to witness the FTSE 100 rise by more than 10% in three months.  During this time, the weakness of Pound Sterling was boosting the profits of FTSE 100 companies with overseas earnings.  Around 70% of FTSE 100 earnings come from outside of the UK, making a weak Pound Sterling beneficial for these companies.

We’re not suggesting that a Brexit meltdown, leading to a collapse in the Pound, will have the same positive impact on UK equities next time, but it’s worth keeping in mind that things aren’t always as simple as they first seem when it comes to investing money.

Our approach towards investment advice and management also remains unchanged because our clients are long-term investors.  Any increased volatility we experience over the coming days, weeks and months will likely be short-term, having little meaningful impact on the long-term performance of portfolios.  One exception could be where clients are making withdrawals from their portfolios in retirement and in this case, we can allocate a sufficient amount to cash in order to avoid needing to drawdown from invested assets during periods of extreme market correction.

We’re staying the course because we know that attempting to time investment markets is futile.  When markets are volatile, there’s always a temptation to try and sell before they have fallen to the bottom and then buy again before they rise to the top.  Nobody can do this consistently well. The more likely outcome is selling low before buying high and, if you do this on enough occasions, this can lead to wealth destruction.

We understand that it can be unpleasant to watch investment market volatility and experience falls in the value of your portfolio.  Regardless of how often we remind investors and our clients that volatility is a normal part of the long-term investing journey, our heart is bound to overrule our head on occasion, especially when the media does its level best to be sensationalist.

If you’re feeling nervous about investment markets in the wake of the Brexit news this week, talk to Wells Gibson.  We’re always happy to discuss any concerns you might have.

Why market timing is futile and it’s time in the market that counts

By | News & Views | No Comments

There’s a lot for investors to worry about.  High market valuations, rising interest rates, the prospect of a no-deal Brexit and escalating trade tensions fuelled by Donald Trump, all raise the likelihood of greater market volatility.

When markets are more volatile and investor sentiment turns negative, resulting in short-term falls in value, it can be tempting to try and time the markets.  Timing the markets involves attempting to sell before equity markets hit the bottom and then buying before they start to rise.  This sounds good in theory but, in practice, it doesn’t usually work out that way.  Instead, investors can find themselves selling low and buying high!  If investors repeat this process enough times they will soon run out of money to invest.  At the very least, the value of their portfolios will take a big hit.

One of the biggest problems with attempting to time the market is that you can easily miss out on a few of the best days of returns.  Do this, and your overall long-term returns will be significantly worse.  According to a study from Fidelity International a couple of years ago, an investor who invested £1,000 in the FTSE All-Share index 30 years ago, but missed the best 10 days in the market, would have achieved an annualised return of 7.09% and ended up with a total investment of £7,811.55.  This compares with an annualised return of 9.38% and an investment worth £14,733.64 if they had stayed in the market the whole time – an opportunity loss of £6,922.09.  If an investor had missed the best 20 days, their annualised return would be 5.55%, which would have resulted in an even worse shortfall of £9,676.56.

This research should remind us that volatility is the price we pay as investors, for long-term outperformance from equities, relative to other investment asset classes.  The potential for long-term returns comes from risk in the form of market volatility.

There are significant risks associated with trying to time the markets.  This is because it is so difficult to predict the best time to get out and then get back in to equity markets, during periods of market volatility.  These risks are magnified by the impact of the very best and worst days of market performance tending to be grouped together during periods of increased market volatility.

A more sensible approach to investing is to keep your money exposed to the markets throughout the entire market cycle, during the ups and the downs.  There’s an old stock market adage which says time in the market matters more than timing the market.  At Wells Gibson, we would tend to agree.

When markets are especially volatile, the value we add as financial planners, is to guide our clients and keep them focused on their long-term, lifestyle, financial and investment objectives.  Furthermore, because we can demonstrate the value of time in the market, and the futility of market timing, we are able to secure the best long-term results for our clients.

If you have been tempted to try market timing in the past or perhaps, during the current bout of market volatility, why not give us a call and see if we can keep you on the right track.