There is no shortage of AI headlines at the moment, and it would be unusual if none of our clients were asking what it means for their own investments.
This piece sets out the questions we’re hearing most, and answers them the way we answer most things: calmly, and with the evidence in front of us.
How much AI is in your portfolio?
The scale of investment in AI is genuinely large. PwC, one of the world’s largest professional services firms, estimates that global data-centre capital expenditure could reach approximately $800 billion in 2026, potentially rising to $1.8 trillion by 2050.1
The honest answer is that there is no clean line between “an AI company” and everything else. A small number of firms design the chips involved. Others develop the underlying models. Beyond that, the effect extends much further, into energy, infrastructure, and countless ordinary businesses using AI to improve what they already do.
Using a reasonable approximation, the overlap between a representative AI focused index and the wider global stock market sits at roughly one fifth², measured by market capitalisation. Put the other way round, four fifths of a broadly diversified portfolio sits outside that definition entirely.
What this illustrates is that a properly diversified portfolio already holds meaningful exposure to the businesses best placed to benefit from AI, while remaining spread across a great many other companies and sectors.
Are AI stocks overpriced?
The evidence is consistent: very few investors are able to outperform the market’s collective view over time, whether through selecting individual stocks or timing when to buy and sell. That does not mean markets are always correct. Some AI related businesses will disappoint. Others may exceed even the most optimistic expectations. Nobody, including us, can say with certainty in advance which will be which.
The more useful question is not whether AI stocks are overpriced, but whether a portfolio remains properly diversified if expectations prove to be wrong, in either direction.
Could AI be excluded from a portfolio?
In principle, yes. In practice, excluding a defined list of companies brings trade offs:
A smaller universe of investable companies to choose from
Greater concentration in whatever remains
Potentially significant differences from global market returns
Higher costs to research, monitor and implement
The narrower the exclusion criteria, the more pronounced each of these becomes. With more than 10,000 listed companies globally, reviewing each one to decide what qualifies is not practical, and a wide enough definition could see the majority of stocks excluded altogether.
We would never dismiss a wish to invest in line with personal values. It is simply worth being precise about what would be excluded, why, and what it costs, before deciding. It is also worth noting that most shares trade between investors in secondary markets, rather than with the underlying business itself, so excluding a single company from a portfolio is unlikely to have a measurable effect on that company.
What does this mean for your financial plan?
Very little, and that is rather the point. A financial plan is not built on identifying the eventual winners of any particular technology, nor on predicting whether valuations will rise, fall, or have already gone too far. It is built to remain resilient, regardless of which businesses come out ahead. In practice, that means:
A well structured portfolio, properly diversified
Costs kept under control, and tax managed sensibly
Regular rebalancing
The discipline to remain invested through uncomfortable periods
AI may prove to be one of the defining technologies of this century. It may also bring disappointment, disruption and risks not yet fully understood. A well diversified portfolio already carries exposure to both possibilities. Markets move through difficult periods from time to time, for reasons that are rarely obvious in advance, which is why a plan is reviewed regularly, to keep the balance between growth assets and more defensive assets aligned with individual goals, timeframe, and capacity for risk.
The sensible focus remains on what can be controlled, allowing the plan to do the rest.
Let’s talk it through
If anything here has raised a question about your own portfolio, we would rather you asked it than sat with it. Get in touch, and we can talk it through together.
Risk warnings
This note is for general education. It is not investment advice, and does not take account of your individual circumstances or objectives. Nothing in it should be read as a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Views expressed are our own at the time of writing and may change without notice.
The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
AI related investments carry additional risk. The sector is fast moving and currently dominated by a small number of large companies, which can mean greater volatility than a broadly diversified portfolio.
Where specific products or fund types are mentioned, this is for illustration only. It is not a recommendation of any specific product.
Wells Gibson is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Firm Reference Number 731027).
Sources
| No. | Reference |
|---|---|
| 1 | PwC (2026) Global investment in AI infrastructure to hit US$31.6 trillion through 2050. London: PwC, 2 September. Available at: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/news-room/press-releases/2026/global-investment-in-ai-infrastructure.html (Accessed: 2 September 2026). |
| 2 | Represented with Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence & Big Data ETF. Not a recommendation. For reference, the fund’s factsheet explains that the fund “Provides diversified exposure to up to 100 stocks which have exposure to themes linked amongst others to AI, Big Data and Cyber Security from global developed and emerging markets”. Compared with the Albion World Stock Market Research Index. See smartersuccess.net/indices for more info. |
